US President Donald Trump has gone all in with his effort to strongarm Kyiv into peace negotiations with Russia, suspending US military aid to Ukraine with immediate effect.
The move has sent shockwaves through the Western world and left Ukraine and its allies scrambling.
Trump didn’t explain his decision beyond saying that he believed that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky “doesn’t want peace.” His advisers told CNN the pause will remain in place until Trump determines Zelensky has made enough of a commitment to seeking peace talks.
Zelensky indicated on Tuesday that he was willing to go that way, saying Ukraine was “ready to come to the negotiating table” and that “my team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.”
Addressing a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Trump said he appreciated getting a “letter” from Zelensky telling him he was ready to come to the negotiating table.
Here’s what we know.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
Trump’s order will have a direct impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked aggression.
Oleksiy Melnyk, an international security expert and former Ukrainian defense ministry official, told CNN that US military aid currently accounts for around 30% of Ukraine’s weapons and ammunition needs.
“Is it critical? Yes,” he said, pointing to Ukraine’s persistent weapons and ammunition shortages. Kyiv has been outgunned and outmanned by its much bigger neighbor since the opening salvos of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and the situation has become worse whenever Western deliveries have dwindled.
“Having in mind the shortage of ammunition and weapons, even 1% is critical. Thirty percent is definitely critical. Is it tragic? What we are hearing from different sources, Ukraine will be able to sustain this level or about the same level of violence density for about six months,” Melnyk said.
“It will have significant consequences, but the Russians are not likely to break through immediately or in the coming months,” said Kateryna Stepanenko, the Russia deputy team lead and analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor.
“The Ukrainians will be able to hold a defense, as we had seen them do in the past during the previous problems with aid,” she added, pointing to last year when deliveries from the US slowed down as Congress stalled on the next aid package.
CNN military analyst and retired US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton said that some munitions are being delivered with short notice, shipped to where they are most needed at any given moment.
“As a result, some of the effects could be felt almost immediately on the front lines. The Ukrainians will have to ration their use of certain munitions and that could spell trouble for their efforts to hold on to places like Pokrovsk,” he said.
An important logistics hub, Pokrovsk has been the prime target of Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine since the summer. Despite expectations that the city could fall within weeks, Kyiv’s forces have managed to hold Russian troops at bay – in part thanks to the steady deliveries of US military aid.
Which aid has been suspended?
The US had been providing Ukraine with artillery ammunition, tanks, armored vehicles, howitzers, Patriot air defense batteries and long-range rocket and missile systems.
But the pause spans beyond just hardware. US officials have confirmed on Wednesday that the US has paused intelligence support as well weapons shipments to Ukraine.
A senior US military official said the US has already curtailed some intelligence sharing, including carrying out fewer intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance flights that could impact both offensive and defensive operations including air defense, since Ukraine depends on US intelligence for overwatch.
Stepanenko said the intelligence sharing was “extremely important for Ukrainian forces” because it included things like satellite imagery, which Ukrainian forces use for drone operations. It is unclear whether the pause to intelligence sharing includes these.
The US has previously stopped humanitarian aid to Ukraine – as part of its overall pause on USAID programs.
Why is Trump doing this?
Trump is trying to force Ukraine into negotiating a peace deal with Russia without committing to providing security guarantees for Ukraine.
Zelensky has tried to make the case that a deal without guarantees would be potentially disastrous for Ukraine, arguing that Putin has violated ceasefire agreements in the past.
The Ukrainian leader has received near-universal backing from Kyiv’s Western allies on this point. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the UK Parliament on Monday that security guarantees must be part of any peace agreement.
“We know (Putin) is not a man to keep his word. We must be vigilant on all fronts in relation to Putin,” Starmer said.
